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Pavement Performance Forecast

The LTPP Performance Forecast Online provides pavement performance predictions (i.e., roughness and distress) for flexible and rigid pavements. The models were developed under the National Pooled Fund LTPP research project "Effects of Multiple Freeze Cycles and Deep Frost Penetration on Pavement Performance and Cost".

The models provided within this program were developed using data from the LTPP database. This includes pavement test sections located in the Dry Freeze, Wet No Freeze and Wet Freeze environments with various subgrade types and a range of loading conditions. Use of these models in the Dry No Freeze environment should be considered with caution.

The values that appear in the parenthesis next to the input boxes are the ranges available in the dataset that were used in the development of the models. Predictions made using input values outside these ranges will be extrapolations from the original models and should be considered with caution.

Developed as part of pooled fund study TPF–5(013), the Long–Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) Performance Forecast produces performance predictions for both rigid and flexible pavements. These predictions are based on regression models using data available from approximately 800 in–service test sections in the LTPP database. These sections consist of a variety of climates with various subgrade types and a range of loading conditions. Using the LTPP Performance Forecast, researchers can compute roughness, structural cracking, environmental cracking, rutting, and faulting predictions as a function of pavement age. The forecasts are based on user–defined inputs for traffic, structure, environment, and subgrade conditions.

Complete details on the model development and the pooled fund study can be found in the final report, Effects of Multiple Freeze Cycles and Deep Frost Penetration on Pavement Performance and Cost (FHWA–HRT–06–121). Because the main objective of the study was to quantify the impacts of frost on pavement performance, the models developed and implemented in this application cover both frost and nonfrost regions and are applicable to a range of climates. Separate links are provided for flexible and rigid pavements.